2009-02-24

ZT: 李泽楷绝技考

The HK media hasn't really been fair with Richard Li. Although I do not think he is a likeable person, he really does not deserve all the criticism he has attracted.

1) selling STAR to Murdoch - HK did not lose much, it is a satellite license which has no real cost and he made billion by selling to an Australian/American
2) Acquiring HKT - it was a very smart and responsible deal for the original PCCW shareholders (like what Steve Case did for the original AOL shareholders). Yes the original HKT shareholders suffered, but they had the choice to take cash when the deal was sealed
3) Privatisation of PCCW this year - as Cheung argued, $4.5 was a good price and well over the market value.

Yes, his wealth came from government favour such as the satellite license (how was it granted?) and the Cyber Port real estate project which became Bel Air, but more fault was with the AOs and Tung Cheehwa (or ICAC for that matter).

李泽楷绝技考

那天跟一位朋友进午餐,见他手上持着《壹周刊》,封面又是李泽楷,标题大字云:《$306万买起$280亿电盈》。心想:李察真的那么厉害吗?为什么曾荫权不委任他作财政司长了?禁不住问朋友取得该期《壹周》,回家后翻了几次,才知道三百六十万不是买起电讯盈科(简称电盈),而是以该数「种票」,成功地种成电盈私有化。后来才知道《壹周刊》可能计错数,或种票者生得蠢。原来支持私有化的股份足够之后(当日赞成的总市值逾五十亿元),成功「种票」的费用只需三千元。另一方面,要成功地「种票」而毁灭了李泽楷(简称李察)的私有化大计,不需要论股份多少,不怕麻烦三千元足够!后者是反种,不怕麻烦易过借火,奇怪没有人处理好反种票后去敲诈李察一笔。古怪法例会导致古怪现象,反种「敲诈」是否非法我赌法庭判不出来(一笑)!

电盈私有化的舆论真的热闹了。报道多,不易懂,李察虽被赌王誉为「叻仔」,但传媒皆仿效杜甫写李白:众人皆欲杀也。为了好奇我挂个电话给一位知情的朋友,问他可否解画一下。他说可以,谈了好一阵,跟着送来好些文件及资料,都是可以公开的。从这些资料及读到的传媒报道中,我提出了四个问题,浅的,得到的答案也浅。

我提出的四个问题如下:一、为什么要用而又可以用借钱派息的方法来收购外股作私有化?二、股份投票怎么会用人头算的?三、每股四元五毫的收购价是偏低了吗?四、李察为何要搞私有化?这四点应该是读者需要知道的,没有其它。整件事,牵涉到的公司或机构有好几家,股权与数字的分布变化多,说起来相当复杂,但基本上无关宏旨,引进容易产生混淆,这里一概不管。读者要知道的是李察的一家公司与另一家公司组合,以四元五毫一股作价,收购外间所有的电盈股份,实行电盈私有化。

第一题问:据我所知,派息一定要有钱赚才能派,可以借钱派,但没有钱赚不能派,李察的公司何来赚百多亿那么多钱了?找到的答案是:好些年前李察的公司重组,在会计上积累了一些可分配的储备,称distributive reserve,所以今天没有赚那么多钱还可以借钱派息。这样的处理是经过会计师及律师的工作,没有理由怀疑,何况证监会不可能不监察着。再问:派息收购,外间的股东也有息派吗?答案是没有,因为派息是处理为股票成交后的事。这是股市的一种正常运作。又再问:为什么李察不私人借钱而要用公司去借呢?这里的答案要猜测一下:私人不容易借那么多钱。结论于是明确:收购电盈的公司多了电盈的股票,但同时增加了负债,打个平手。大家知道,任何公司,只要负债够高,免费送出去也没有人要。

第二题,关于种票。我问:是香港哪项发神经的法例,使私有化的决定用人头算而不是用股份多少算的?答案是香港的公司法例说的:不是完全发神经,因为有四关要过。其一是与收购有关的持股人不能投票;其二是有权投票而又投了票的,以股份算,赞成票不能低于百分之七十五;其三是以有权投票的总股份算,投反对票的不能超过该总股份的百分之十;其四是以人头算,不管股份多少,不投不计,投反对票的要低于一半。

这解释了为什么容易有种票这回事。李察种票应该是刑事的,因为他属有关人士,在法庭做了誓章。无关的外间人士种票却不是犯法(在澳洲是合法的)。如果无关人士种票是非法或刑事,香港的法庭与监房会忙得不可开交也。

一手盈科一千股,分开下注一千手有一千个人头,拆细分头一手可以有一千个人头。进行电盈私有化决议时,一千个人头的总股价成本(不算手续费)只三千多元(每股约可赚一元)。困难是怎样去找一千个人头呢?你不易,我不易,李察也不易,但可以办到。关键是你和我到处找一千个人头,找不到那么多,有数十个也不错。李察呢?每找一个人头都需要该仁兄或仁姊收口,否则坐牢去也。收口可以敲诈,李察钱虽多,不会多得那么厉害吧。他的智商用不着达到「叻仔」那个层面才懂得是要听天由命的。

第三题,关于电盈股票所值。这里的答案必然是武断的。有三项资料读者可参考。其一是去年七月李察在国际上放盘招标,出售他公司持有的电盈股份,九月初收到的高标,算出来是每股在三元五毫五仙与三元八毫五仙之间,李察嫌少,不沽,害得盈科股价大跌。其二是去年十二月底出价四元二毫收购搞私有化,收到风声一些外间的基金大股东会反对。于是收回私有化决议,加三毫以四元五毫作价,二月初再推出,过了关。读者须知,基金的君子们一般精打细算,不是什么善男信女,他们接受四元五角,不可能是盲毛或仁慈之举。其三是以四元五毫算电盈的市盈率,超过二十倍。从有线电讯的前景看,这市盈率算是很高的。

这里我要加进自己的武断:综观目前的经济情况与前景,电盈四元五毫我不会问津。不是空口说白话。母亲当年储存了不少「香港电话」的股票,一箩一箩地放在床下底(西湾河曾经传为佳话)。虽然母亲授权我处理,我知道她只买不卖数十年,对「电话」有感情,不敢轻举妄动。但当我在报章读到香港政府会用钱收回当时电话的专利权,立刻替母亲沽清,一股不留。从来不教人买或卖什么股票,但昔日的「电话」经验使我在文章中提及:除非消息灵通,不要下注靠政府保护而有专利的股票。目前这类股票在中国不少,还算安全,因为政府本身是大股东。待得政府成为局外人,走得快必定好世界!

第四题:李察为什么要把电盈私有化呢?这一题,连武断的答案也没有,只能猜测。不离谱的猜测,是去年五月九日恒生公布决定把电盈剔出恒生指数的成分股,六月十日执行,跟着电盈的股票成交量萎缩,李察可能因而感到意兴阑珊。股票上市的额外经费不菲,舆论麻烦,如果集资的用场不大,私有化一般是正着。资料显示,电盈被剔出成分股后不久,李察于七月初在国际放盘招标。

上述可解李察目前的舆论之困乎?应该可以,因为虽然涉及的公司有好几家,文件、法例、数字等错综复杂,但拨开了这些,核心的问题与答案皆浅。李泽楷绝技考,我找不到绝技,也看不到有商业道德问题。话得说回来,李察这个人的确有招惹舆论的奇异功能,不知下一趟会是哪方面的题材了。个性若此,狗仔如斯,夫复何言哉?诚哥龙生两种,大可仰天一笑!


2009-02-19

The wrong chart which misleads

(via Big Picture) WaPo has a chart showing how Japan has fallen behind in the past 2 decades. viz, it was #4 in GDP/cap (nominal) in 1992 and "now" only #20. Unfortunately there are two problems, (1) it used nominal currency which depends on the very volatile exchange rate figure; (2) it used 2007 figure.

I made a simple estimate, using the 2007 number given by WaPo (i.e. assuming the same GDP/cap growth in the past 14 months, which could vary by a few percentage points ), and applied the difference in exchange rate taken from charts in yahoo. Now Japan climbed back to #3 as a result of the recent exchange rate hike. (ignoring those behind #10 in 2007 ranking, which seems reasonable as no other country has seen such significant appreciation in exchange)



For developed countries it is always more "stable" to use PPP, for which Japan is still around #20 in 2008 (17 in World bank rank, which excludes non-sovereign entities such as HK, consistent with the charts WaPo has been using, which excluded HK). So I do not challenge WaPo's assertion, but its reasoning and choice of data is questionable.

p.s. I do not have the GDP/cap ranking for Japan in PPP in 1992, but I believe it is in the teens, so Japan's rank in GDP/cap(PPP), i.e. living standard, did not change that much. (it was 20520, vs 24700 of USA)

p.s.2 PPP is not as reliable when comparing the economy of developing countries, though in longer time span it is more stable -- which I had chosen when I studied China's growth a few years ago


2009-02-17

Darwin's theory - the mathematical argument

Charles Darwin is perhaps one of the most influential scientists in the past 300 years. The others include Newton and Einstein. The reasoning behind Darwin's theory can explain phenomena observed in many fields in this world, including even modern business and finance.

For example, the evolution of the players in an industry mimics the various species in a habitat where new species are evolved and the fittest survives. Each thriving company would have mastered its own niche, like a thriving species does. As the environment shifts, 
The only key difference, as strategist Bruce Henderson noted, is that evolutionary path in the natural world "happen", more or less by chance of the re-shuffling of the double helix. While companies can actively pursue its strategy to chose its own path (and hence niche/competitive advantage).

In finance, one simple analogy is the stock market indices such as DJIA, where successful company phases in and the less successful one phases out, creates an illusion to us that stock price always grow (with the indices). While in reality many companies failed and many investments disappeared, but they are not reflected in your DJIA or Hang Seng.

People are often under the impression that it is possible to win against the casinos, as we often hear (directly or indirectly) people bragging how much they got from a trip to Macau or Vegas, or their friends or friend of friends, if not themselves. One often fails to notice the fact that people usually won't tell you if they lost. So you got only a biased sample of gamblers. Those who vanished after losing their lives' saving won't have the opportunity to tell you their stories, just like the out-competed species who will not live to tell you theirs.
-- the simple fact is, casino is a very profitable business. Casinos make a lot of money despite the high operating cost and heavy tax.

I can go on and on, which is why Darwin is so great, in my view.

There are many evidence supporting Darwin's theory, which you may all have read. The most important (to some, 'controversial') idea of Darwin is that Species are not stationary, they evolve, and new species will appear as a result of 'evolution'.

Here I want to lay out a simple argument, simply based on two pieces of facts
1) There are only finite number of species in history
2) Species extinct in the past, present, and also likely in future

They we can reason as below
3) If there is no new species coming into this world, the total number of species will decrease (monotonically -- to borrow a high school mathematice term)
4) When such trend continues, and unless the rate of decrease of the disappearing (extinct) species falls at certain rate (mathematically, the sum over time converges to a finite number) -- which is certain untrue at present time as we witness the lost of species much faster than any other time in human history, mostly due to the impact of human themselves -- there will be very few (or no) species left within a finite number of years.

Therefore, there are only 2 alternatives (with the caveats stated above). (A) New species emerges over time. (B) There will be very few species left in some years.

Now let's start this line of thought from a couple billion years back, when we first observed life on earth (from fossils). 
1) the total number of species in our world today is 3-30 million
2) the history of life on earth is about 3.5bn years
3) if no new species emerged since "genesis" (i.e. 3.5bn years ago), then the total number of lives back then would be 3m+(3.5bn)X, where X is the number of species extinct per year. (to be more precise, this should be an integral, as the rate is not a constant. but we can approximate)

We know that many species extinct each year in today's world. Without the human impact this rate of extinction would be much slower, however, we do see many species extinct in the past, such as the dinosaurs, the trilolites. If only on average one species extinct per year, the total number of species existed on earth 3.5bn years ago would have to be 3.5bn+3m! One has to ask, if the earth is large enough to accomodate so many species, given it could only house 30m today.

2009-02-11

CCTV staff ignored police intervention

All was as speculated in my earlier post. Though the police might not have been persistent enough. But the Question remains: who was so powerful that police intervention were rejected? What "title" did he throw at the police officer?


本报讯(记者安然)市消防局新闻发言人骆原上午透露, 昨夜中央电视台新址园区附属文化中心工地发生的火灾,原因已经初步查明。骆原表示:“ 火灾是由于工地现场内业主单位的人不听民警劝阻, 执意违法燃放烟花所造成的。”

据介绍, 着火的央视新址园区附属文化中心大楼, 分为演播大厅、数字化处理机房和北京文华东方酒店,目前尚未正式投入使用,也没有经过消防验收。消防部门的初步调查显示, 引燃大楼的烟花是一种礼花弹,属于A类烟花。在燃放过程中,曾有治安民警在现场劝阻,但是没有起到作用。

在晚上8时27分接到报警之后,119指挥中心迅速调派27个中队、85部消防车,共595名消防官兵前往扑救。作为主责中队的红庙消防中队首先到达现场, 指导员张建勇带领4名战士进入火场, 展开侦查工作, 并同时寻找被困在楼内的部分保安和工程项目负责人。在侦查火情过程中, 官兵们发现火情极为复杂, 于是从14楼下撤,此时烟气弥漫,视线受到影响,行动已经非常困难。下到8楼时,已经几乎难以行动。最终,有3名消防员成功到达了1层, 但随即与外界彻底失去联系。后续赶到的消防官兵立刻展开救援, 于晚上11时30分, 将被困于一层和八层的官兵解救出来。但张建勇因吸入大量有毒气体,抢救无效,不幸牺牲。在扑救期间,除张建勇外,还有6名消防员和1名工地工作人员受伤。

据消防局介绍, 张建勇生于1979年2月26日,本月即将迎来30岁生日。他1998年从沈阳入伍,2002年提干,牺牲前为副营职指导员。他的妻子目前在北京一家医院工作,父母在沈阳老家。今天上午,张建勇父母来到北京。

据介绍, 起火的大楼地上30层,地下3层,建筑面积10.3万平方米,部分面积过火,具体情况正在勘察中。火灾造成文化中心外立面严重受损,大楼西、南、东侧外墙装修材料过火。经过消防官兵的奋力扑救,火势没有蔓延到北外立面和演播大厅,也没有造成建筑主体结构损害。据目击者说, 火灾首先从楼顶着起来, 在短时间内沿外立面蔓延开来。骆原说,火灾蔓延如此之快,与建筑材料、建筑物高度都有直接关系。“30层的楼, 楼顶上的风力很大, 对火势蔓延产生了直接影响。”而且由于该楼尚未完全竣工, 楼内的消防设施不全, 赶来扑救的消防队即使使用98米的云梯车, 水枪也难以到达楼顶。目前, 有关部门已经查扣了尚未燃放的礼花弹等各种物证, 事故具体原因正在进一步调查中。

Fire In Nearby Television Culture Center Works Site in New CCTV Tower Site — Caused By Illegal Fireworks

Luo Yuan, the spokesman of the Beijing Municipal Fire Brigade, revealed this morning that causes for the fire last night at the Television Culture Center site have now initially been found out. Luo Yuan stated: “The fire was caused because STAFF OF THE BUILDING OWNER inside the site REFUSED TO listen to police advice AND INSISTED ON setting off fireworks in the site.”

As briefed, the building on fire is the Television Culture Center, which is split into a broadcast hall, a digitization room and the Mandarin Hotel, which are presently not in service and have not underwent fire brigade inspections. Fire brigade authorities investigations initially conclude that the fireworks that caused the fire was a Class A fireworks. DURING THE FIREWORK SHOW, Police were on hand to attempt to obstruct the fireworks from being set off, but attempts at obstruction WAS IN VAIN.

A fire report was received by the fire brigade at 20:27. The Beijing 119 fire brigade instruction center quickly dispatched 27 fire brigade groups, 85 cars and 595 fire fighters to extinguish the fire. The Hongmiao fire brigade was the main responsible group and arrived first on the scene. The instructor, Zhang Jianyong, guided four fire fighters and entered the scene, and at the same time, looked for some security guards and the project manager trapped in the building.

In discovering the fire, fire fighters found the situation extremely complex; hence they went down from the 14th floor. At this time, smoke was all over the place, hampering visibility; movement was extremely encumbered. Upon arriving at the 8th floor, it was almost impossible to move. In the very end, three fire fighters reached the ground floor, but immediately lost contact with the outside world. Fire fighters which arrived subsequently immediately started rescue operations, and rescued fire fighters trapped in floors 1 to 8. Unfortunately, Zhang Jianyong died due to inhaling excess amounts of poisonous gas. During the rescue operations, 6 other fire fighters and one other works site personnel were also injured, apart from Zhang Jianyong.

As briefed by the fire brigade authorities, Zhang Jianyong, born February 26, 1979, was supposed to turn 30 this year. He became a firefighter in 1998 and was promoted in 2002. Prior to his death, his post was a deputy-post instructor. His wife presently works at a hospital. His parents live in Shenyang. This morning, both parents arrived in Beijing.

As briefed, the building on fire had 30 floors above ground and 30 floors underground, with a building area of 103,000 square meters. Investigations are still ongoing in the parts burnt. The fire caused serious damage to the outside of the building, with the western, southern, and eastern parts of the exterior burnt. Thanks to rescue efforts by the fire fighters, the fire did not spread to the northern exterior and did not damage the main structure.

Eyewitnesses stated that the fire first started from the upper parts of the building, which then spread quickly to the outside. Luo Yuan said that the fire was able to spread so quickly due to the material used in renovating the building. “This was a 30-storey building with a lot of wind on the top part of the building, thereby directly impacting the duration of the fire.” In addition, due to the fact that the building was as yet unfinished and had incomplete fire fighting devices, water guns proved to be ineffective even when used with a 98-meter raised ladder.

Right now, associated departments have already taken hold of fireworks which were not set off, and are continuing the investigation leading to the cause.

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違法放煙花致畄天火 央視道歉 2009年2月11日

【明 報專訊】中央電視台新址內的文化中心大樓前晚發生嚴重火災,造成1死7傷,北京消防局昨日證實,火災係央視不聽民警勸阻,執意違法燃放煙花所致,涉案疑犯 和物證已被警方監控。資料顯示,火災物業業主單位是中央電視台新台址建設工程辦公室,辦公室主任為今年50歲的央視副總工程師徐威。

北京市 公安局消防局副局長、新聞發言人駱原昨日稱,初步調查顯示,引燃大樓的煙花是禮花彈。業主單位前晚聘用湖南一間煙花爆竹公司人員,在大樓西南角空地上燃放 禮花彈,現場遺留上百個禮花彈桶以及玻璃鋼容器。駱原說:「這些禮花彈都屬於A類煙花,是北京市明令禁止燃放的產品。燃放時,曾有治安民警進行勸阻,然而 業主單位執意燃放。相關錄影資料都可以成為最終追究責任的有利證據。」

火燒6小時 1消防員殉職

火災造成1名消防員殉職,另 有6名消防員及1名工人受傷,附近的600多名居民被迫緊急疏散,整個東三環高速公路和地鐵10號線一度交通中斷。央視昨日對此發表道歉聲明,指對國家財 產受損「痛心」,對居民蒙受不便表示真誠道歉。但央視並無承認火災責任,只稱會配合當局調查。央視外事處負責人對媒體表示,不管查出誰人負責,都會秉公處 置,對施工外包方的責任,也會要求賠償道歉。

工程師﹕修復難度不亞於重建

而據現場目擊者稱,火警是從大樓頂部逐漸向下蔓延, 估計是煙花點燃頂部塑料及泡膜隔熱物料,因大樓自動灑水裝置還未啟用,消防車水喉又射不到30層高的頂部,大火燃燒6小時才能被撲熄。有專業工程師向本報 表示,經此大火焚燒後,大樓即使主體結構未受損,修復難度亦不亞於重建。

據中新網報道,央視新址是已向中國人保財險投保,所投保險包括建工 一切險、施工設備財產險、僱主責任險,事故發生在保險合同期限內,人保財險已開始理賠作業。而大火殃及位於該樓內的北京文華東方酒店,總部位於香港的文華 東方酒店集團昨日表示,原計劃將於今年夏季啟用,但開業時間現在要延期。

另外,受燃放煙花爆竹及不利氣象影響,北京前晚出現今年首個5級「重度污染」天氣,當晚9時污染物濃度每立方米高達810微克,至昨日凌晨5時仍為每立方米399微克,遠高於99微克的良好標準。

2009-02-09

CCTV on fire

UPDATE
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From the Fire Department

官方公布:央视擅自燃放礼花引起火灾

  北京市消防局副局长、新闻发言人骆原2月10日表示,市消防局通报,中央电视台北配楼工地火灾是业主单位不听治安警察劝阻,执意违法燃放烟花造成的。

  北京兴建中的央视新建大楼北配楼附属文化中心及酒店2月9日晚发生大火,焚烧近六小时,于凌晨2时左右大致救熄。

  火场是正在兴建的文华东方酒店,当时没有人,但一名消防员救火时,吸入有毒气体,抢救后不治,另外有5名消防员及1名央视员工受伤,中心内有10多层倒塌。当局初步查明,有人违规燃放烟花引起火警。

  骆原表示,9日晚,中央电视台雇用了湖南某烟花公司,擅自在失火大楼西南角空地燃放了数百枚礼花弹,这些礼花弹属于A类烟花,燃放必须经过北京市政府批准。骆原表示,整个燃放经过有4台摄相机进行跟踪拍摄,目前燃放人员和礼花弹箱体已经被警方监控并取证。首先失火位置还在调查中。

  骆原又说,据初步勘测,火灾造成北配楼外立面受损严重,大楼西、南、东侧外墙装修材料过火。火灾未造成主体结构的损坏。他说,由于大楼的装修刚进入尾声,灭火设施不完善,因此施救高度只能达到98米,因而造成当时灭火困难。

  骆原说,指挥中心在9日晚8时27分接到火警后,迅速调派27个中队、85辆消防车、595名消防赶赴现场。至10日凌晨2时,大火被全部扑灭。大楼整体面积为10.3万平方米,部分面积过火,具体情况正在核实中。当局10日继续封锁现场附近街道,并派驻解放军及警察把守,禁止民众走近。

  天亮后,可以看到中央电视台的文化中心大楼损毁严重,大楼不少窗框被烧毁,外墙严重熏黑,而覆盖大楼外中间部分的支架,更明显看见有裂痕。当局仍然封锁现场一带的路面,令原来交通繁忙的道路更为挤塞。而北京文华东方酒店发出的声明指,新酒店大楼起火时,他们60名员工全部都不在大楼内,并没有人受伤。至于火警时,大楼内有否其它的建筑工人,集团暂时未清楚。

  新中央台旁边的酒店大楼由文华东方管理,他们并无拥有股份。酒店原定于今年下季开幕,现时仍在评估会延迟多久开幕。

  当局启动应急预案,在现场设置应急指挥中心,市委书记刘淇、市长郭金龙、央视台长赵化勇赶到现场指挥扑救。

  目击者指,有人在附近放烟花,火花落到工地楼顶,触及易燃的防水材料,引发火警,且楼内不断传出爆炸声。事发是元宵节,市政府容许市民在今年春节期间燃放烟花爆竹的最后一日。在起火大约3个多小时后,建筑物外面的火基本扑灭,消防员转而控制建筑物内部的火势,工地的主体结构没有受到严重影响。火场距离中央电视台新大楼约200、300米,大楼未受到火警影响。救火期间,警方实施交通管制,封闭附近的地铁站。

  事故造成七名消防员一死六伤。现场总指挥闫勇表示,死亡消防员的名叫张建勇,今年30岁,为消防队红庙中队指导员,零时1时40分左右因抢救无效死亡。闫勇表示,面对大火浓烟,他在现场不但英勇指挥且投身救活,还在紧急时刻摘下自己的防毒面具给现场需要人员。

  其它6名伤员,朝阳医院表示,有两名伤情较重,但无生命危险。另外3名,有一位是央视大楼物业管理人员,治疗后已自行离院;其它2名消防,病情稳定。


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Some picture of the aftermath and about the deceased firefighter's story on sohu.

(via danwei) Now the police acknowledged/confirmed it was the "Class A" firework approved by CCTV itself which started this and CCTV issued an "apology" (and a photo from the East side, which was damaged much worse -- fire on the west side were weakened after 2130 and there was another series of explosion about 3/4 in height to the SE side)


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央视网消息:记者从北京市消防局了解到,央视新址北配楼火灾是由于业主单位的人不听民警劝阻执意燃放A类烟花所致。北京市公安局消防局副局长、新闻发言人骆原在今天举行的新闻发布会上说,当时业主单位在配楼的西南角空地用玻璃钢管施放A类烟花,这类的烟花与北京奥运时燃放的烟花类似,是用电脑控制的。烟花燃放的经过及致使配楼着火的部位等仍在调查之中。

据介绍,由于大楼的装修刚进入尾声,灭火设施不完善,再加上消防部门现有装备灭火能力最高只能达到九十多米,因此造成当时灭火困难。


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央视网消息:2月9日晚20点27分,位于北京市朝阳区东三环的中央电视台新址在建附属文化中心工地发生火灾。2月10日上午,经北京市消防局调查证实,这次火灾是由于工程项目业主管理单位中央电视台新台址建设工程办公室主要负责人未经请示批准,擅自雇佣人员,违规燃放烟花酿成的。

火灾给国家财产造成严重损失,中央电视台深感痛心,给周边群众造成交通拥堵和生活不便,中央电视台表示真诚的道歉。

此次火灾仍在进一步调查之中,中央电视台将全力配合有关部门处理好后续相关事宜。


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This video showed very clearly how the fire started on the rooftop, you can see how high the firework went up to and how the building was "within range" of all fireworks, when the heart shaped (or elliptical, depending on your POV) fireworks were seen, you can see clearly large pack of smoke started on the rooftop. This was exactly what I witnessed as well, it was perhaps a couple minutes after the fire started. (I watched from a high floor and saw the fire before the smoke got big) -- more video links of how it started via B&W Cat
The person who took this video seems to be located on the NNE side of the building
(in china - on youku)

(outside china -- on youtube)


The aftermath -- looks like the structure is still there, despite a couple blasts last night. it is hard to see from this picture, but there are clear fire scars on the surface of the structure)
Fire started somewhere a bit to the left (north) of the small spire on the rooftop




The CCTV complex -- firework was set on the drive path between the main building and the "annex" (the one that was burnt). the fireworks were shot to about 50-60 stories high and explode into large spheres of smaller fireballs, radii of the spheres are about twice the width of the annex/hotel building -- which can now be seen by the video above)


On a clear day last summer (courtesy of my friend)


taken at 20.58om - started as small fire on the roof top, by 20:45 to 20:50 the roof started to collapse and fire spread to about 10 floors down to the hall (perhaps the hotel lobby). it took only a few minutes for the fire zone to multiply, showing that there are quite some flammable matters on the building


taken at 21:18pm - about the time of the first explosion


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I was at a friend's apartment watching firework. As you probably know, fireworks are uninterrupted form all directions during Yuan Xiao in Beijing. However, those from the CCTV complex trumps all, they are 3 times bigger and 3 times higher! The traffic on East 3rd Ring soon went to a halt as drivers stops by the roadside to watch this spectacular show.

It started as splendid firework, unfortunately the wrong place was chosen for the show. The space between the 2 tower in the CCTV construction site (where the fireworks were set off) was just not open enough and fireballs often bounces on the glass wall of the "lesser tower"/"tower II"/Annex (the full name for that building is actually TVCC - TV Culture Center, which will host the studio, concert hall and the Mandarin Oriental Hotel). I got a bit worried watching that.

About 20 minutes into the show (about 820-825pm), a small fire was seen on the top of the tower, apparently due to one of the fireballs from the firework show. OMG! The firework shot to about 50-60 stories high, about 5 stories higher than the lesser tower but lower than the top of the main tower (the assymmetric boxer tower 大裤衩).

Fire trucks arrived in about 5-10 minutes, but it seems that they were unable to reach the top of the building. Had there been helicopter with water bomb, the fire could have been put out easier at that time. Otherwise, if there was water supply to the roof, things would also be easier.

Unfortunately, it seems the fire at the roof was not (or could not be) taken care of. By about 20:50 the fire lost controls, the roof started to collapse and starts to spread to lower floors. Then I knew it was over for this beautiful building. What a shame. 

At some point I wooried that there might be a WTC style collapse, especially when there were at least two major explosion between 2100 and 2200.

There would be very strict rules on fireworks next year -- need to be set on completely open space, not close to any building. This is what it should have been. Instead, many people did it on the roadside, or on the road, or just next to the buildings.

p.s. the fire seems to be under control by 2230pm, about 2 hours after it was started.

p.s.2. the fire was surely started by one of the fireballs from the firework show (see illustration on google satellite photo above). and it was almost certain that it was CCTV internal people who did the firework show, since those were the most expensive type of firework not seen anywhere else in Beijing tonight. I expect someone within CCTV will be punished.


p.s.3. you may have seen some photo with white spots on top of the fire, that was taken around the time the explosions happened.
p.s.4 The TVCC is 44 stories and 159 meter tall, the CCTV main (asymmetric) building is 234 meter tall.the firework shot to around 180-200 meters and it was much closer to TVCC. The whole complex cost 5bn RMB to build, which makes the TVCC perhaps around 1bn RMB, not including equipments inside, which was said to cost in the billions.

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Class A/B/C/D fireworks

人民网科技北京2月10日电 据新华社消息,北京市公安局消防局副局长、新闻发言人骆原在十日举行的新闻发布会上说,央视新址北配楼火灾是由于业主单位不听民警劝阻执意燃放A类烟花所致。

  骆原说,当时业主单位在配楼的西南角空地用玻璃钢管施放A类烟花,这类的烟花与北京奥运时燃放的烟花类似,是用电脑控制的。骆原说,烟花燃放的经过及致使配楼着火的部位等仍在调查之中。骆原说,燃放现场有监控录像,一切物证目前均由公安部掌握。骆原说,由于大楼的装修刚进入尾声,灭火设施不完善,因此施救高度只能达到九十八米,因而造成当时灭火困难。

  烟花爆竹的四个级别

  依照国家标准,烟花爆竹被划分为四个级别,危险性从高到低依次为A、B、C、D。上市的所有烟花爆竹产品都会在外包装上明确标注A、B、C、D等级。

  北京确定,五环路内将只允许销售和燃放C、D类烟花爆竹。五环路以外则以C、D级品种为主,在旅游度假村等室外大的开放空间可燃放B级品种。

  A级:适应于由专业燃放人员燃放,在特定条件下燃放的产品。

  B级:适应于室外大的开放空间燃放的产品,当按照说明燃放时,距离产品及其燃放轨迹25米以上的人或财产不应受到伤害。

  C级:适应于室外相对开放的空间燃放的产品,当按照说明燃放时,距离产品及其燃放轨迹5米以上的人或财产不应受到伤害。对于手持类产品,手持者不应受到伤害。

  D级:适应于近距离燃放,当按照说明燃放时,距离产品及其燃放轨迹1米以上的人或财产不应受到伤害。对于手持类产品,手持者不应受到伤害。

  北京市规定:A级产品曾禁止在全市销售和燃放

  北京自2006年春节实行烟花爆竹“禁改限”制度。2005年11月北京市烟花办即公布了北京市允许销售、燃放烟花爆竹的品种和规格。

  据介绍,结合北京市实际情况,在广泛调查研究、征求专家意见、进行烟花爆竹样品演示的基础上,确定北京允许销售、燃放烟花爆竹的品种共计650个,分为喷花类、旋转类、吐珠类、爆竹类、组合烟花类等7种规格。

  按照《烟花爆竹安全与质量》等国家标准,烟花爆竹分A、B、C、D4个等级。此次公布的燃放原则为:A级产品禁止在全市销售和燃放;B级组合烟花类、喷花类、旋转类产品以及带升空效果的多响(含双响)爆竹仅允许烟花爆竹专营单位配送给确定的燃放点有组织地燃放,其他地区不得销售和燃放;五环内只允许燃放安全距离为5米之内的C、D级的喷花类、旋转类、吐珠类、爆竹类产品。

  此外,为保障人身财产安全,燃放时含有金属漂浮物,排放有毒物质的烟花爆竹将禁止销售和燃放;总装药量超过1500克的组合烟花产品也在不许燃放之列。